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September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Nope. For now it is a physical vs physical comparison.
I am expecting SMP to lose its #3 sport in the charts because its digital sales won't be counted in the full report. A shame given the apparent strong digital performance of the game.
Digital numbers aren't included. Magicpork themselves specified "Physical only".
Mario Party will probably be 6 or 7 behind FIFA and maybe TR(probably not poor Lara).
No matter what for 2 days in a busy month it's an excellent performance.
Destiny is probably there...
And just to break my hearth.
10. DQXI
Believe.
Freaking crazy. Really just shows what a good exclusive can do to sales.
Also Spider-man crushing NBA!? Wth is with that
Nintendo did another Gold Points scheme for preorders which worked well for Tennis Aces earlier in the year, Benji I *think* commented to this effect and well just look at the chart on your Switch, it's no 1 on mine and has been for a while.
Double Golden coins offer + charted #6 on the September eshop chart with preorders alone (1st time I saw this) + high charting position of the digital code at various retailers + Multiplayer games have a higher digital ratio.
The game is apparently doing strongly digitally.
Seems like
SMP will overperform
Pokémon Let's Go May underperform
Smash Bros will perform to expectations of being gigantic.
Interesting for Nintendo
SMP will overperform
Pokémon Let's Go May underperform
Smash Bros will perform to expectations of being gigantic.
Interesting for Nintendo
Are there any indications that Pokemon will underperform?
And what is Mario Party overperforming compared to?
Pre-orders have been soft.
Game will still do well, just maybe not as well as people think.
Lets go is just kinda there, the general public aren't positive or negative about it
Let's Go seems like the more casual Pokémon title while the Switch audience is still fairly core. Seems like if Let's Go was later on in the gen, it would do much better.
Using these numbers I get the following for January-September total sales:
PS4: ~2708K (+9%)
NSW: ~2245K (-3%)
XB1: ~1868K (+32%)
Thanks. So PS4 almost did get 50% share of the console market and that's with PRO shortages. Also I guess it wasn't impossible for Switch sales to be down from last year.
Could have been with a PS4 normal bundle, but as expected the PS4 Pro bundle (the only one announced for the US) was sold out on Amazon after a few days. I guess it's the same everywhere ?
Right now, Sony has entered into the Q4 war without any bundle, I don't think it ever happened in previous years.
At that rate Switch will have to catch 700-800k in November/December... I expect another big win in October for PS4.
I still believe Switch will come first for the year.
In a MoM basis ?
It was pretty expected, September was the end of the shortages last year and they didnt have any impactful games in August/September.
Honestly surprised all around.
PS4 had a huge month thanks to Spider-Man. Unbelievable it hit over 400K.
Xbox One finally has a month down YOY. Besides bundles there really wasn't much this year compared to Destiny 2 but I thought it could at least sell more than 180K.
Switch also down YOY, and the weekly average is basically flat from August.
PS4 for sure will sell over 5M this year, hell it could sell more than 2017!
PS4 had a huge month thanks to Spider-Man. Unbelievable it hit over 400K.
Xbox One finally has a month down YOY. Besides bundles there really wasn't much this year compared to Destiny 2 but I thought it could at least sell more than 180K.
Switch also down YOY, and the weekly average is basically flat from August.
PS4 for sure will sell over 5M this year, hell it could sell more than 2017!
How does it compare to GoW? Hopefully it can be the top debut for a PS4 exclusive.
You are expecting a 300k gap in October ?
That's way too big for a month like October.
Expected PS4 being well over 400K and it was =) Talent always wins
Dayum! Can't wait for the next sales update.
Been looking for the April results but could not find them. Does anyone have them as it would be interesting to compare Spider-Man to GOW?
PS4 being big was expected. Xbox though is mildly disappointing. Slightly down YoY and down ~100k from 2015 meaning it's falling behind best year pace. Plus, that's just low for a September which should be a big month, also being 5 weeks. That will also place it basically tied with 2017 as Xbox's worst September (actual worst since it was down 4%).
No real explanation for why Xbox has been up YoY and now not *shrug*. They need a price cut on Xbox One X IMO...
No real explanation for why Xbox has been up YoY and now not *shrug*. They need a price cut on Xbox One X IMO...
Well there is a RDR2 bundle... I expect at least 390k PS4.
I expect PS4 to win November with $199 and lose December by a big margin.
So Oct + Nov is something around that.
2017 September was 5 weeks too so i think Xbox is doing alright.
As One X price cut, i'm sure they will do it, i mean, it's getting close to holiday time lol.
So yeah a few thoughts
PS4 hardware is unbelievable really. As I had noted Spidey was pushing a serious amount of hardware out the door and was a legit system seller. Very impressive for a title to be able to accomplish something like that this late in a generation
Xbox performance is poor. No real way to slice it other than that. Especially disappointing as its had a great 2018 up until this point. Let's hope it can have a strong Holiday
Told ya'll Super Mario Party is performing VERY strongly
PS4 hardware is unbelievable really. As I had noted Spidey was pushing a serious amount of hardware out the door and was a legit system seller. Very impressive for a title to be able to accomplish something like that this late in a generation
Xbox performance is poor. No real way to slice it other than that. Especially disappointing as its had a great 2018 up until this point. Let's hope it can have a strong Holiday
Told ya'll Super Mario Party is performing VERY strongly
Think Spidey and GOW show that a big exclusive can still move hardware late in the game along with the mid gen refresh .
Spidey crushed it :)
Totally deserved for my 2018 goty.
Bring on the dlc!
Now what's interesting is that, like some Nintendo titles, I could totally see both GoW but particularly Spider-Man being evergreen titles that continue pushing PS4 sales, particularly during the Holiday period.
RDR2 marketing won't hurt one bit either, for sure.
Still expecting a $199 period around BF, and a well priced bundle in December (HZD/ SotC?).
I didn't see the now traditional COD bundle announced yet though?
Totally deserved for my 2018 goty.
Bring on the dlc!
Now what's interesting is that, like some Nintendo titles, I could totally see both GoW but particularly Spider-Man being evergreen titles that continue pushing PS4 sales, particularly during the Holiday period.
RDR2 marketing won't hurt one bit either, for sure.
Still expecting a $199 period around BF, and a well priced bundle in December (HZD/ SotC?).
I didn't see the now traditional COD bundle announced yet though?
I only doubted you for a little bit there lol.
But seriously as I said before well done.
Yep that's an amazing month for the PS4. And with the comments on Spidey.. wow..
Expected a higher number for the Switch but still above the ~250k number that I guessed was the lowest possible :P
Xbox.. meh?
Interesting to see SMP so high on the physical only list with such few days tracked. Wonder if Nintendo will spill the beans about early performance for it in their briefing in 10 days or when ever it is.
Tomb Raider... that's too bad :S
On to October, which is going to be very interesting. So many bundles...
Expected a higher number for the Switch but still above the ~250k number that I guessed was the lowest possible :P
Xbox.. meh?
Interesting to see SMP so high on the physical only list with such few days tracked. Wonder if Nintendo will spill the beans about early performance for it in their briefing in 10 days or when ever it is.
Tomb Raider... that's too bad :S
On to October, which is going to be very interesting. So many bundles...